Tuesday, April 18, 2006
How to get good at this stuff
Reproduced from the Comment box for the benefit of readers:
"18 Apr 06, 17:18: Tom: Greetings Spike, to have missed a day like today likely means I'm not very good at futures trading, amazing how you picked rallying points, do you recommend any of your sites for getting good at this?"
My comment box reply:
"18 Apr 06, 19:48 Spikefader: Tom, if it's any consolation, today's action was certainly an unexpected move for me, but if there is one thing I have learned is be prepared when the market shouts, which it did in loudly today."
And as further comment, Tom (and to your question of where to learn methods to "get good at this"), or perhaps to find a system that will consistently generate effective and profitable YM futures trade signals, I humbly and confidently say that I doubt very much whether you'll find sites or articles or freely available TA work anywhere on the net that will point you in the same direction as my developed system; it's that unique.
It is apart from everything I've read on the subject, and is the result of many hours of personal research and tweaking. One hears plenty about indicators, price action, support and resistance, retracements, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci et cetera, and all that is very very helpful for trade bias and profitability, but it's still nothing close to my own swing/scalp system. It is just a unique system. It focuses on specific things that stand apart yet associated with commonly discussed trading concepts. And at times the signals will match key support or resistance levels, and make a whole lot of sense, but at other times it will be very very aggressive, and sometimes stand in the face of logic, making one question the reliability of the signal. Take for example the scalp long signal today at 11175 that took a quick +30. That made little sense. Now that second signal, the long at 11235 for +30, made more sense, since it was after a breakout, and a return to support. The same for the 3rd scalp long at 11261, a corrective support play.
But holding swing long at current levels makes little sense, given the spike resistance last Friday to these levels. But that's the signal; hold long overnight and look for extension tomorrow. Smart money says profit-take and wait. The system says hold long with green hope. It's these crazy, arguably illogical signals, that may turn out to be fantastically correct. I mean the logical thing to do yesterday was to hold swing short, and look what happened! Disappointing stop out for even. So much for logic! Hehe
And seriously, when one understands the principles behind the signals that this system generates, it makes perfect sense. One day you may very well see what I mean :D
In hindsight, the last several weeks has seen the YM trade in a frustrating fashion for swing traders, bouncing to take out stops for shorts, and dropping to take out stops for longs, making me look foolish for not taking profits after +30 or +40. But I'm targeting a swing trade, so I'm patiently taking the defensive hits for stopout pushes. And in my opinion, this type of action speaks uncertainty and doubt, and is perfect for the big pocket traders to tweak it, and profit from it. For little fish, it's frustration. And I doubt any system can do much in the face of such price action aside from patiently execute and stay focused and disciplined for when the trend comes.
But a day like today usually ends such choppy nonsense and clearly whispers bullish bias that will see a trend. And I'm grateful that the Vector bias I have favors such a view. Not to say that won't change tomorrow, but for now, the resounding sound is that the bull is up to any challenge bears might throw at it. Hopefully this swing long will reward and prove me right. Sure, it is green hope, but it's the only kind of hope worth talking about. It is soooo much better than red hope. Imagine being a stubborn bear today at areas of the low. You'd be 239 points in the red, with a distinct likelihood of painfully extending that tomorrow. If you're short 5 contracts, that's a painful 6 grand, and the perfect lesson that holding short in the face of a powerful bull out of the "c" support gates. Yet again the "c" area proves its worth.
Now……all that might sound like a shameless pump, a teaser, smoke and daggers, and hype for my own system. But I know Tom and anyone else who has followed my YM calls from the mrmarketishuge forums knows how good these signals can be when the market acts right. And as to where can you find information "to get good at this" stuff, Tom, well, right here is the place! I'll happily share everything but the system details for now, and who knows, I may even share that stuff one day….
Best to ya, and all readers!